SPX
原则上现在强势突破後看能继续多久
纯技术上存在一些可以值得注意的位置
今天就来讨论一下
大周期来看
4983 这个数字来自三角收敛开口得出的数据
5172 这个是上升三角来计算 但是如果以上升三角 这个时间太早 假突破机会很大 如果再回来测试再上去比较可能
长周期 4496 AB=CD
短周期 4476 AB=CD
4391 AB=CD 加上这边是上次纽时的第一个山头/也是转换区域 所以这个位置我也特别注记了水平线
撇除大周期来看
长短周期的预估数字都很相近
而这波时间也突破原先设定的牛熊转换L1
这个位置是有标志性的意义在
明面上是趋势有个比较乐观的走向
但是同时”假突破“的可能性也存在
短线上有假突破 长线也是
现在要关注的重点在於是否能暂时喘口气盘一下蓄力
图上有两条Tiffany Blue（Green） 这个是我短期的天地位置
位置内的红线是我个人预估合理的走向
比较关键的是不能破橘色箭头那条阴阳线
破了就是小牛结束回熊
个人操作上还是续抱
但是我的止损止盈基本上现在都拉的很近
宁愿被扫出去
但是担不起突来的大型跌幅导致卖不掉现货
(换句话就是做期货会比较灵活)
为什麽在大周期可以测得5172这个数字我还是相对保守
这个可以分成两个层面来解释
第一 政经未稳
第二 小型股未有明显上涨
第一点 难掌握 变数也多 唯一比较能看好的就是美国选举一般都是拉抬经济 但是现在国际未平稳前 随时都可能有大变数
第二点 以往真转牛（经济回稳）小型股虽然也是滞後 但是会有明显的增幅及量 目前还看不到
所以我偏向这波要创新高有困难
回调时间应该就这几天
另外 如果真的走向之前提过的有可能走1960-1980周期
那大周期的4983/5172 可以预见的就是顶部
图内的230310框也是潜在顶部 端看未来走势而已 (这个目前被突破机率蛮大的)
反正原则上 10年内 以往的大牛难现
短而快的牛熊替换或会是常态
注意仓位及资金控管
共勉之
In principle, after the strong breakthrough, it is worth considering how long it can continue. Purely from a technical perspective, there are some noteworthy levels to discuss today.
In terms of the long-term cycle:
4983 is derived from the converging triangle and represents an important data point.
5172 is calculated based on an ascending triangle. However, if we consider it as an ascending triangle, it may be too early, and there is a high chance of a false breakout. It is more likely to test again before continuing upward.
In the long-term, 4496 is an AB=CD pattern.
In the short-term, 4476 is an AB=CD pattern.
4391 is an AB=CD pattern and also represents the previous peak and a transition zone. I have marked this level with a horizontal line.
Setting aside the long-term perspective, the estimated numbers for the long and short-term cycles are quite close. The current price has also broken through the previously set bull-bear transition level L1, which holds significant significance. On the surface, it indicates a more optimistic trend, but at the same time, the possibility of a “false breakout” exists, both in the short and long-term.
The key focus now is whether there can be a temporary consolidation and accumulation of strength. There are two Tiffany Blue (Green) lines on the chart, which represent my short-term support and resistance levels. The red lines within this range indicate my personal estimation of a reasonable trajectory. It is crucial not to break the orange Yin-Yang line, as breaking it would signal the end of the minor bull and a return to a bearish market.
Personally, I continue to hold a bullish stance, but I have tightened my stop-loss and take-profit levels. I would rather be shaken out of my position than risk being unable to sell physical shares during a sudden large decline. (In other words, futures trading provides more flexibility.)
As for why I remain relatively conservative with the number 5172 in the long-term cycle, it can be explained from two perspectives:
Political and economic instability: It is difficult to grasp and there are many variables. The only relatively positive aspect is that US elections generally boost the economy. However, with the current international instability, there could be major variables at any time.
Lack of significant upward movement in small-cap stocks: In previous true bull markets (economic recovery), small-cap stocks showed obvious gains and increased trading volume. Currently, we haven’t seen that.
Therefore, I lean towards the difficulty of reaching new highs in this wave, and the pullback time should be within a few days.
Additionally, if the market indeed follows the previously mentioned 1960-1980 cycle, the long-term levels of 4983 and 5172 can be considered potential tops. The 230310 box in the chart also represents a potential top, depending on future trends (there is a high probability of it being broken at the moment).
In general, it is difficult to see true long-term bull markets within a 10-year period. Short and rapid bull-bear transitions may become the norm. Pay attention to position management and fund control.
